|THE IMPORTANCE OF THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE EFFECTS OF MOISTURE CONDITIONS ON THE FREQUENCY AND .........|
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE EFFECTS OF MOISTURE CONDITIONS ON THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF FOREST FIRES
Milena J. Gocić
Abstract: The spatial and temporal variability of forest fire occurrence can only be understood in the context of moisture conditions. This paper compares moisture conditions during the growing season on the territory of northeastern Serbia with the dynamics of forest fires. The data recorded at two main weather station, which cover the majority of northeastern Serbia - Negotin and Zaječar, were compared. Moisture values were estimated on the basis of the Standardized Precipitation Index for the growing season (SPI-6) and Davis`s Optimum Summer Weather Index (I). The data analysis for the period 2009–2015 indicates that moisture conditions correlate with forest fire occurrence and intensity on the territory of northeastern Serbia. The degree of forest fire risks affected by moisture conditions in the growing season is the highest during the periods of droughts. The exceptionally wet period in 2014 resulted in the smallest number of fires. In addition, the analysis of Davis`s Optimum Summer Weather Index (I) revealed a positive correlation with the forest fire activity on the territory of northeastern Serbia. The increased values of the index (I) were observed in 2012 and 2015 leading to an increased risk of forest fires. The decreased values (I) in 2014 correlated positively with the low number of forest fires in the summer months. The results were compared with current scientific results from Southeastern Europe and the wider region and they are applicable in the field of ecology and forestry.
Keywords: sustainable development, moisture conditions, forest fires, forestry, environment
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